剧情简介：It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely ad...(展开全部)
作者：Philip E. Tetlock
出版社：Princeton University Press
ISBN：9780691128719
